Projections of Feed Support Capacity and Cattle Population in Maluku Province

This paper describes the estimation of food sufficiency levels and cattle population levels in Maluku Province. The demand for beef is always increasing, as shown by fluctuations in cattle prices, especially on certain days such as religious holidays. Although beef is still below the demand for fish, which the majority of people consume as a daily side dish,

It is interesting that the eastern part of Indonesia, especially Maluku, was once mentioned as a potential cattle-producing region due to its relatively stable cattle population and price level compared to the western part of Indonesia, especially Jakarta. The price difference between the sale of cattle in WIT and WIB caused a reaction to bring in cattle to meet the needs of the Indonesian people.

This paper is important because Maluku is an archipelago with less than 10% of the total land area. So the question arises whether the feed in the Maluku Islands can meet the predicted population growth. It should be noted that the majority of cattle rearing methods in Maluku still use traditional methods with no cages or are left wild around community gardens. This is understandable because beef is not the main protein source for the people of Maluku. This is actually interesting if it is related to the food diversification program, especially the fulfillment of protein needs. Protein self-sufficiency, which is often identified with meat self-sufficiency, puts too much burden on beef production, requiring Indonesia to provide beef through imports. In fact, if we refer to other commodities that can be an alternative source of protein, fish has great potential for meeting protein needs, as has been done by the people of Maluku for generations. There is even an assumption that “you can’t eat without fish”.

The analytical tool used to determine population predictions is time series analysis, referring to the years 1992 to 2012. BPS data in Maluku is very limited; it was not possible to collect data until the 1980s. According to officers at BPS, much Maluku statistical data was lost due to the major riots that had occurred in the province. Similar to the paper I wrote about the effect of climate change on food crop production, the data I used did not touch the 1980s. However, it does not reduce the effort to continue analyzing because the data can be said to be sufficient if it has an adequate goodness of fit value so that it can produce a model that can be used to predict the level of cattle population and feed in Maluku Province.

The four models used in this paper are linear, quadratic, exponential, and moving average models. Three of the four models are simple time-series models. The selection of this time series model is because the model is suitable for use in processing time series data of cattle population and feed, not necessarily using the Arima or Sarima model or other forecasting analysis tools, because the cattle population data shows a significant trend with annual data.

Based on the MSD value, the quadratic model is considered suitable for calculating cattle population variables and feed power variables because it has the smallest MSD value and the largest adjusted R2 value. The projected amount of animal feed resources derived from agricultural and plantation waste in Maluku Province is still sufficient for the needs of cattle up to 1,800,734 heads. The value of feed resources is said to be excessive because the predicted cattle population in Maluku Province only reached 96,343 heads in 2017. Based on the results obtained, Maluku Province has potential for agroindustry development. Agro-industry development that integrates the food crop and plantation subsectors with the livestock subsector can be carried out by disseminating technology for the integration of food crops or plantations with livestock, such as making manure from cow dung and utilizing feed from food crop or plantation waste.

The concept of cattle rearing in Maluku is still a simple one, with the aim of meeting its own needs and not yet leading to production outside the region. What needs to be addressed slowly is to disseminate intensive or semi-intensive technology to farmers, which can then be accompanied by crop-livestock integration technology.

Hopefully Indonesian agriculture, especially Maluku, can develop further and be able to realize food sovereignty so as to create a generation of smart, healthy people with an equal distribution of welfare from cities to villages and remote areas of the country.

The full paper can be seen in the agrieconomics journal at the following link:

http://journal.trunojoyo.ac.id/agriekonomika/article/view/1001/2211

http://journal.trunojoyo.ac.id/agriekonomika/article/view/1001/2211


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